Tendencies

I've talked a lot about metrics in baseball lately, and some people still seem confused by what they are, even if they see them being used more and more. Today I'm going to give you a brief primer on their use and value in sports.

Have you ever seen a weird infield shift for a batter when he comes up to the plate? You know the one.  A strong left-handed batter like Jim Thome comes to the plate. The pitcher has pretty good control and pitches him inside. The infielders all move to the right side of the infield where the third baseman is now in the shortstop position. The shortstop is playing deep and to the right of second, the second baseman is in shallow right field like a rover in softball, and the first baseman is playing deep behind first. And the outfielders are mirroring that same alignment. If you're at a game live, that kind of shift looks unreal. But then Thome hits it right at the second baseman playing rover on a line drive and he's out.

That's metrics put to use in real world playing situations. And that's why you see Joe Mauer making so many more outs than he used to. Players tendencies are recorded by statisticians. The good managers see what those tendencies are and adjust their pitching and defensive alignments appropriately. If those new alignments lead to more outs and less hits, they keep those alignments, or fine tune them even further as time goes on.

Great gifted hitters will have the ability to negate some of the metrics taken on them. They'll learn to bunt more down the third base line where no one is playing. They'll adjust their stance in the batter's box. They'll adjust the way they hold or swing the bat. They'll make the shift less effective thus freeing themselves from those awful shifts.

The "not so great hitters" will simply make more outs from now on. Mauer is a good example of that. It's the main reason that guys like Aaron Hicks can make such an unbelievable splash when they first come up and then fizzle out so quickly. If you don't have the ability to adjust to the "book of tendencies" on you, the metrics taken will kill your career. That's the difference between good hitters and poor hitters. Making adjustments, based on tendencies, is what metrics are all about.

Which brings me to Torii Hunter. I hate to rag on him so much, but he's the perfect example of a physically gifted player who never learned to make adjustments defensively. When he was younger he had the physical tools to outrun many balls that he wasn't really in position for. He had the arm to throw out players any time they tried to advance on him.

But he never learned HOW to really field his position. Because he never developed the ability to see tendencies in players hitting, he is now OUT OF POSITION when a batter hits. The metrics show this. He also never developed a feel for batted balls and where they are about to go, thus his reactions, which are slower than every other right fielder in the league, betray him. The metrics show this as well.

It's also one one the reasons he'll most likely make a poor coach or mentor when he retires. He won't be able to pass on good fielding habits to younger players because he never knew or practiced those habits himself. If anything, you don't want him going anywhere near someone like a Hicks or Buxton, At best he'll teach them nothing. At worst, he'll teach them bad habits of things they shouldn't do.

I talked about that a bit when I talked about why great players rarely make great managers. The great players who relied on their physical gifts can't teach. Great players who LEARNED how to be great, by seeing tendencies, still have the potential to be good mentors. I believe guys like Molitor and Cudduer fall into that category.

Great players and managers have been using metrics for decades, they just didn't know it, because it wasn't labeled as such, and it came as naturally to them as physical skills came to Torii. The faster and better you see these tendencies, these patterns of play, the better you and your team will play.

I'm hoping Molitor will see the need to make metric adjustments very early on in his managing career. You see, the real greats learn how to make adjustments, even when they are no longer playing.