Football Thoughts

I laughed at Nimble Nate's comment yesterday, but football is such a different beast than baseball.

The good football teams (think the Patriots, the Packers, or Broncos) rarely look bad even in their losses. Average (or worse teams) frequently look horrible in many games. I think we all would agree that the Vikings looked really, really bad on Monday night.

Concerns reared their ugly head early and often.

Bridgewater looked so bad in his passing, especially early, even on the plays in which he had time to throw, that you had to wonder if something was physically wrong with him. He overthrew one simple 6-yard pass by 10 or 12 yards. The ball didn't get away from him, he didn't lose his grip. He simply threw it way too hard and way too far. I don't think I've ever seen an out pass thrown that badly by anyone.

Tavaris Jackson, at his worst, never threw a pass that badly.

And it's not like that pass was out of the norm Monday night. Bridgewater looked bad.

Another concern? Blair Walsh has got the yips. People usually use that term for baseball players who suddenly forget how to throw the ball. Literally. It happened to Chuck Knoblach when he was on the Yankees. A very good second baseman, and former Twin, literally could no longer make a good throw to the first baseman. Not just an occasional bad throw, but an all out assault on accuracy with virtually every throw. His body simply forgot how to throw a ball successfully to first base. He had to be moved to the outfield and eventually was forced to retire early.

Blair no longer looks like the kicker we had a couple of years ago. He started looking bad late last season. He looked worse in the preseason. And then looked just as bad Monday night. That the Vikings signed him to a new long-term contract in the preseason doesn't help. Mike Zimmer says he's not considering anyone else.

Long time readers of my blog might remember how I documented what a major role the kicker plays on good or great teams. Accuracy by a kicker will often determine if a team makes the playoffs. Long-range accuracy is the difference between making the playoffs and winning the Superbowl. So many games between great teams come down to a single kick by each of the teams' place kickers. The team with the best kicker wins.

Unless Walsh remembers how to kick, our season is over before it started. A missed extra point or a couple of missed "easy" field goals in any game will kill a team. Great teams win close games. Bad teams find ways to lose. Missed kicks and failing to take advantage of turnovers will turn you into a losing team. On Monday, both of those things were on display for the Vikings.

Biggest concern? We are putting our running game in the hands of an aging/ over-the-hill runner. I've already said that I don't like Adrian Peterson the person. His never-ending string of excuses blaming everyone but himself last season for his legal problems grew old quickly. But what about Peterson the  former all-pro running back? I don't like his chances either. Very few running backs in football history are great after they turn 30. That seems to be the shelf life of an effective NFL runner. The difference between great and washed-up, is reaction speed. Even two seasons ago, the year AFTER his great 2,000 yard season, it was obvious his evasive feet in the backfield were no longer quite as evasive. Getting trapped in the backfield time and time again while attempting to make a good escape move became more of the norm than break-away runs. We should see that trend get worse this season.  And if our makeshift line is supposedly worse than expected, we'll not see Peterson have a successful season.

Emmitt Smith was basically the only runner in NFL history to have a great later career. He was not the same type of runner. He didn't dally in the backfield. He wasn't known for dancing to get away. He knew where the hole was supposed to be, he went there, and he squeaked through it as quickly as he could. And he just kept on running until someone tackled him. He didn't over-power. He didn't evade. He just hit the expected hole quickly. Once through, he just followed his blockers. He was the smartest running back who ever lived. There was a reason he has the all-time rushing record.

Football is different in another way. It will take just 14 days for the Vikings to play (not quite but close enough) 20% of their season. Those first 14 days, those first three games, mean more in football than any other sport. I can't say the Vikings are going to be bad this year just yet. But in about 10 days or so, we'll all know. We don't have to win all our games to be good. But we have to look good even in our losses. The good teams look good even in their losses.

In other words, we can't look like Monday night again. Good teams don't have that luxury.