Future Gloom

I told myself that I'd try to be more optimistic about the Twins this season. Maybe Joe Mauer will be his old self for a couple of more seasons now that he's fully healed from all that's ailed him. Maybe the nice array of veteran starters and guys like Kyle Gibson will give the Twins 1000 innings of solid pitching performance among the five starters for a full season. They are, individually, each capable of 200 good innings, if healthy, so why not? Maybe Arcia and Vegas will have breakout 30 plus homerun seasons. And maybe Molitor will learn to play the metric saber odds more readily than I hope...

...and then I read that Torrii Hunter came home to Minnesota for more than one reason, he doesn't just want to finish his career hear, he wants to eventually become the Twins GM, because he thinks he's pretty "good at judging talent."

Suddenly I start to think, "I'm 55 years old, now I'll never live long enough to see another Twin's championship. I may not live long enough to see another winning season."

I'm sure Torii is a nice enough guy, but if he can't see why he isn't worth what he's asking this season, I dread the future of him leading the team. He's the living embodiment of "old school."

Baseball management has always been divided into two camps. There is the team that expects to win the division every single year, and they make plans, both short term and long term, to do just that. They spend money on young talent while being open to getting rid of expensive older, popular stars in order to do that. They also spend the money, every year, on the best free agents available, for short-term help to fill present gaps in defense, pitching, or hitting. It's a system that has worked well for most teams that employ it. The Twins WERE one of those teams from 2004-2010.

Then there is the team that plays with smoke and mirrors. They bring in average free-agents, hoping against hope that they will somehow, someway become better players than they've been in the past, while bringing BACK popular, aging veterans to sell tickets early in the season. They even throw in a new stadium to get people interested. They have every conceivable promotion possible throughout the season to bribe fans to come to the game, trying to disguise the fact that they aren't very good, while relying on nostalgia and young families to fill the seats. They are in the entertainment business. Their box office is far more important than winning or losing. That strategy works for getting fans to the game, for a few season at least, but then, when they don't win, it all falls apart. That's been the Twins for the last several seasons. Eventually the subjects see the emperor has no clothes and they quit supporting the emperor.

That will become the Twins in the next couple of season without a miracle turn-around.

I should add that there is a third type of team. I call them the Yankees and Dodgers. They just spend money until something clicks. Most teams do not fall into that category so I'll ignore them.

The future of baseball, for any team, is NOT living in the past. I don't see the need for any radical new rule changes. Replay makes sense because we have the capabilities to get more close calls correct without the endless, time-consuming arguing. And getting everybody to play faster between innings makes just as much sense. The only baseball teams that don't have quick between innings breaks are major league ones.

But successful teams now, and in the future will rely on numbers crunching statistics more than ever. Glenn Perkins knows that. There is a reason that he has become one of the best closers in baseball (at least when he's healthy.) He is a numbers geek. He KNOWS the metrics of every batter he faces. He knows their tendencies in every situation like no other pitcher in history. He studies those tendencies, those metrics, as much as he gets his arm in pitching shape. And he uses that knowledge to make the right pitch selection, every time. He's been quoted in the past as saying that when he makes a mistake, it's not his mind that fails, it's that his body didn't throw the exact pitch the way that he wanted. His mistakes are pitches that "got away from him." It wasn't a bad selection. It was poor execution.

And he knows the difference. HE HAS A MODERN BASEBALL MIND. He would make a great GM someday. It's also what he is currently grooming himself for. The problem is that Torii is going to reach retirement long before Perkins, and the Twins wouldn't be looking for a sharp baseball mind anyway. They'll be looking for a guy like Torii Hunter. One who the fans like.

And I'll never see another Twins winning season.