Thursday, November 8, 2012

Rumor Mill

I was sent an e-mail yesterday mentioning that Terry Ryan, when talking about Chris Parmalee, said, "we're going to try to fit him in there, without tipping our hand too far."

The obvious assumption  ("without tipping our hand too far") is that the Twins are thinking of making Parmalee a starter, while trading a current starter.

That's where all the speculation begins. Parmalee plays first base and right field.

That means the Twins are either thinking of trading Justin Morneau and his huge contract NOW while he actually is starting to look really good again and has some real value OR they are thinking of trading one of our current outfielders.

Now IF a Twins fan were to list our current outfield they'd probably say it's Willigham, Revere, and Span. Mastoinni and Benson are the backups. So WHO are theTwins getting rid of?

It can't be Revere. His contract is still low, the fans love him, and he's improved by leaps and bounds.

It can't be Willingham because, despite his average defense, he's the ONLY player on the team that can really hit homeruns. Remember he's the first Twin to hit at least 35 homers since Harmon Killebrew.

That leaves us with Span or Morneau. Span's contract is increasing yearly and he has some real trade value.

Center fielders that can get on base, have a little power, occasionally steal and play above average center field don't grow on trees. There is a reason that Span's name has been bandied about by the Nationals and Red at the trade deadline the last two years: he's a commodity. In fact, for those attached to the more advanced sabrmetric stats, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) pegged Span as the most valuable Minnesota Twin last year - above Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham.

The Twins find themselves desperately short of pitching and middle infielders from the majors down through the minors. But this organization can sure develop center fielders. Twins fans know that Revere could step into center field for Span right now and probably improve the defense. And one-level below him is toolsy first round pick Aaron Hicks, who is going to be better defensively than either of them, and probably better offensively, too. And Twins fans have also already been introduced to Joe Benson, who can also hold down the position.

Span will make over $10M over the next two years of his contract. The Twins have limited funds after two straight years of declining attendance. That is $10M that could (and probably should) be used on pitching.

However, Justin Morneau is scheduled to make $14 million next season, the LAST year of his contract. And the now free-spending Dogers have already made inquiries of his availability. I don't see the Twins re-signing Morneau at this point. He hasn't played a full season since 2008 and there's no guarantee he will ever have another really good season.

If the Dodgers are serious about wanting him, the Twins could save an awful lot of money (and the headache and heartache of trying to re-sign him or trade him by late next season) if they trade him THIS offseason.

Of course, the Twins WHO NEED a GOOD veteran established pitcher and help up the middle may decide to trade BOTH Span and Morneau, lowering their current payroll by nearly $20 million dollars in the process. We'll be strong in the outfield either way, and it's possible that Parmalee could hit 20 or more homeruns this coming season at first base.

Prediction: Either Span or Morneau is history. I'm thinking both. And the Twins will sign a good starter and an established middle infielder who is better than what we have now.

At this point, I no longer have an attachment to either. We had them both last season. They had very good years and we still had a horrible season. We need more than what they bring to the table.

And I really like the idea that the Twins IF they want to spend money again, they will have the funds available. My basic small and medium market philosophy remains the same. Play the young guys until they become stars and trade them for established proven vets to plug your weaknesses. Right now we have some weaknesses that need plugging and lots of outfielders. Let the trades begin.


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