Wednesday, December 31, 2014

The Myth of Power Hitting

If you ask a typical baseball fan, they will tell you the Twins need more power hitters. Why? For the simple reason they don't have anybody that can hit a lot of homeruns.

But is there a reason a team HAS TO hit a lot of homeruns?

No, not really.

Recent history has shown major league ball clubs (who understand metrics) that getting on base ANYWAY YOU CAN, and MORE OFTEN is far more important than having people who can hit homeruns. Need a good recent example? Kansas City was the only team in baseball last year to hit less than 100 home runs (they had 95) and yet they came thisclose to winning the World Series last year. Madison Bumgarner's dominance in three starts foiled their chances, not their lack of power.

So, what about the Twins? The Twins led the league in scoring in April and May last year. They repeated that feat in August and September, and finished 7th in all of baseball for runs scored last season. They accomplished that feat in the easiest way possible. They drew walks. Lots and lots of walks. They had almost 550 of them last year, second to only the Oakland A's (Billy Bean's money ball team which understands metrics better than anyone.)

Bruno as hitting coach has convinced the Twins lineup that patience is the best way to get on base, and the only person who did not understand that for the Twins last season was Joe Mauer, which is strange, because Mauer is usually the poster boy for on base percentage and going for walks. For some odd reason he walked way too little last season while striking out way too much.

If you really watched the Twins last year you saw the magic of walks and what they could do. There were some games where we had 6, 7, 8 walks a game. There was a couple innings last year where we had eight walks AN INNING! It looked like an old Bugs Bunny cartoon as we conga-lined around the bases, scoring run after run.

Walks get bullpens tired, require more opposing teams pitching changes, and rest your ball club. And it's like getting an extra four hits a game for FREE. And defenses go to sleep when their pitchers start walking people so that when you finally do hit the ball you have a better chance of getting on base,

All these things happen because you're willing to take the walk.

The Twins didn't win last year because of lack of power hitting. They lost because their starting rotation and defensive range, especially for outfielders, was abysmal. They MAY be better this year with pitching, but stats seem to indicate that their defense is going to be worse.

Walks can only get so you far. Home runs will only get you so far. The best teams have speed and reaction time on defense and good starting pitching. If you lose, you have to look at those two main culprits.

Suh Reinstated, Will Play Sunday

A $70,000 fine is now his penalty. The league ruled it's been almost two full seasons since he's done something like this and under new union guidelines he is no longer a "repeat offender."

I hate sports sometimes. I hate unions all the time.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Monday, December 29, 2014

Vikes, Packers, Broncos End the Season with Wins

The season ended on a high note. The Vikings won with a defense that looked great again. Asiata had his best game as a Viking while Teddy shined brightly once more. The future is looking brighter. With the Wolves on an 8-game losing streak and the Wild on a 5-game losing streak of their own, this win was big for Minnesota sports fans.

(Side note: IF I were in charge, I would change the interception rule. The official scorekeeper should be allowed to place primary responsibility for the INT on either the QB or the receiver. IF the receiver muffs it or drops it, it should go on HIS charts not the quarterback's. Obviously that would still make it a judgement call, but passes that clearly should have been caught should be the receiver's responsibility, NOT the quarterback's. You don't give the pitcher an error if the third baseman mishandles a grounder. It irks me so much to see pretty good passes intercepted just because the receiver didn't do HIS job. Actually, as long as I was at it, dropped passes would no longer be incompletions. They would be listed as dropped passes and go on the receiver's records as such, not on the quarterback's. End of side note.)

If I were a Packer fan living in the Green Bay area, frontier justice would have taken care of the Lion's Ndamukong Suh last night before he got on the team bus. And if I were a Detroit Lion, I would have let the enraged fans have their way with him. Since that didn't happen, I'll call for a lifetime ban on him from the NFL. His antics have gone on long enough. Deliberately stepping on a quarterback's leg with spiked shoes and pressing down with emphasis, along with his past misdeeds, should be enough to file him away for life. AND if the union is really for protecting players they should file an assault case against him. The guy at this point should be serving jail time.

He spoiled what had been, up to that point, a great football game. The Packers have now beaten the Lions 23 straight games at home. The Lions have now lost 15 straight road games against teams with winning records. And Aaron gets an extra week off for his calf to heal. Go Packers!

Detroit has the Cowboys next week at Dallas. Go Dallas! And the league BETTER do something major this week to Suh.

The Broncos clinched a first round bye yesterday as well with a blowout win over lowly Oakland.
Go Denver!

The playoffs start next Saturday. I can hardly wait.


Sunday, December 28, 2014

92 Million Dollars

The Twins still have 4 years left on their Joe Mauer deal, including this season. At $23 million a year, he'll cost us $92 million through 2018. The countdown begins.

Another salary note. The Twins will have their second largest payroll ever this year, clocking in at just under $106 million. That's of course, barring any additional veteran signings before the season starts.

Other long-term deals? The Twins plan on having Santana, Nolasco, and Hughes as their primary starters for the next THREE years. All are signed through at least the 2017 season, though Hughes and Santana are signed for longer deals.

So basically our success for the next three is going to based on those those three starters at a total cost of about $35 a year.

We also have Perkins signed for the next three years as well. There's a method to the Twins madness. We sink or swim with the money put into 5 players long-term: one closer, three starters, and one aging first baseman.

I don't like those odds, but you never know what else may happen. That's why they play the games, and that's why we keep watching and blogging.

NFL

It's hard to believe that today is the last game of the regular season. Though the Vikings have been disappointing this year, there have been some real bright spots. IF they beat last place Chicago today I think most fans will consider it an adequate season. The offense we send onto the field today sure isn't the one we imagined when the season started, but Bridgewater has been tested pretty hard this season, and he's still looks pretty good. Considering his age, he has looked very good. There is talk of Rookie of the Year Honors for him. I guess today still matters.

It sure matters for Packers fans. I still don't see Detroit on the same level as Green Bay, but if Detroit wins today they win the division outright. There's no way I want to see that happen. I'm hoping to see both games today, but I'm never quite sure what games the local affiliates are allowed to show. IF FOX shows the second game in our area I should be watching.

Go Vikes! Go Pack! Go FOX!

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Drafting In the 21st Century

So why are some players like Cal Ripken and Paul Molitor built for the long haul, while others fizzle out faster than a generic diet cola? The people at Facial Action Coding System (FACS) are telling league and team owners that it's their psychological make-up. Many players have what it takes to physically excel at a sport, but if most of your draft picks never go much beyond their first couple seasons of play, FACS tells us you can by and large predict that.

How? By reading micro-facial gesture expressions during interviews. A few seasons ago, FOX television had a show about a guy who specialized in these emotional micro-gestures to see if people were lying. It was called, appropriately, "Lie to Me." Though based on real science, there really wasn't such an organization.

Until now.

FACS is now working with teams in much the same way as the show portrayed. They put the potential draft picks through a series of tough interviews to see how the players react to tense questioning and uncomfortable environments. Through this they can access all sorts of real reactions from the players even if the rookies to be are looking "cool and calm" to the average interviewer. The micro-expressions register inner happiness, surprise, contempt, disgust, sadness, anger and fear. How they react, tells owners who the top prospects are.

Milwaukee Bucks owners Wesley Edens and Mark Lasry, who bought the team in April for $500 million are the first team owners to fully embrace the organization's technology. They expect to make better picks than other teams when it comes down to that "next draft pick." It also shows them who the troublemakers are likely to be.

They want every advantage when taking their next draft pick. Watch other teams follow suit if the Bucks show improvement. While other teams are dabbling with this new technology, the Bucks are already "all in." They feel that's the best way to compete NOW.

It'll still take a few years to fill their team with top draft picks though. So we won't know the results of this brave new experiment for a few more seasons.

Along with improved metric studies, today's scouts maybe out of jobs before long, all replaced by computer geeks and stat-nuts.

There's hope for me yet. Just remember we're always compiling and watching.

Friday, December 26, 2014

Movies

The holidays are the time that we set aside to catch up on our movie watching. And we've been getting way behind with "current" movies so it was time to start watching again.

The latest James Bond movie came out over a year ago but it's one we had never gotten around to watching. It was $10 at iTunes this week so we went for it. If you haven't seen it yet either, we would give it a big thumb's up.

The last act had a little too much explosions and over-the-top villainy, but then again it WAS a James Bond movie so we'd say it was great. What I'd actually call it was the best BATMAN movie ever made. Comissionor Gorden was a woman (M) and Alfred was actually the caretaker, but all in all it's impossible not to watch this as a Batman movie once you see it. An aging Batman is forced to take down another version of himself who has completely gone mad from long-term torture. It worked well as a Bond movie. As a Batman movie it was even better.

Another surprise movie highlight was How to Train You Dragon II. The first movie in the series was a very good kid's movie, but we hadn't gotten around to this one because it was a sequel. Sequels of kid's movies are rarely worth watching. They are usually made just to sell kids more merchandise. BUT it also was on sale this week from iTunes so we went for it.

Turns out, not only is Dragon II, the better movie, it's one of the best movies we've ever seen. Just don't watch it if you haven't seen the first one. Much of what happens in the first is necessary  background for the second. It truly builds from there. It's a fantastic fantasy movie. It's a beautiful love story. It's an epic adventure movie. AND it's THE BEST animated movie ever made. Frozen came out last year and became popular because of ONE song. It really wasn't much of a movie. We refer to it in our house as "Barbie's Ice Castle," which shows you the level of sophistication it had.

Dragon II is so much better. I'm hard-pressed to find any movie I've seen in the last several years that I liked more. Even the villain had a good reason to be so dastardly. I think of the drek that was Avatar a few years back and compare it to that. This movie had similar themes of living in harmony with nature's creatures, but they did it in a way that was so much better. No preaching, just teaching. The results were fantastic. We'll be be watching this several more times in the years to come.

Now, back to watching more movies...

Thursday, December 25, 2014

NBA

It's weird how the NBA has staked out Christmas as THEIR day to shine on television, much like Thanksgiving belongs to the NFL.

The problem is that as much as the NBA wants marquee match-ups, something always gets screwed up to make the games less appealing. This year  Kevin Durant will be missing for OKC against the Spurs because of an ankle sprain. And the Heat will probably be missing Bosh when the Cavs play them. The Big Three will not be reunited on the same floor so the game will lack some of its natural appeal. Even if Bosh does play, he won't be 100%.

That's okay, though. The ratings are never anywhere near what the NFL gets. Where sports fans LIKE basketball, they don't love it. That love is reserved for the NFL. Another Christmas will come and go and some sports fans will catch NBA action. The rest will open presents, watch Christmas specials on TV, or go to the local movie complex.

Or play family football games in the snow. The NBA would like to be the NFL. But they're just basketball. And that's just not good enough.

We'll try catching "A Crhistmas Story" on TBS for the tenth straight year and then check out our ever growing digital video library to round out the day. Basketball will surely get lost in the shuffle.

HO! HO! HO! Have a Merry Christmas!

We double dog dare you.

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Minnesota Sports

The Wolves got stomped by the Love and the Cavs last night as expected.

The Vikings will have NO players in the Pro Bowl, not even Harrison Smith. They haven't accomplished that feat since 1983.

The Twins picked up long-reliever Tim Stauffer yesterday from San Diego. That's the guy you put in when you're down big early and don't expect to come back. Which is good because his road ERA in that role last year was 4.64. After you add another half a run a game because it's the American league, you scratch your head and try to figure out why someone like him is worth over $2 million.

THIS would have been the role that's perfect for someone like Trevor May or Alex Meyer. They would get big league pitching experience with little or no pressure, preparing them for a starter's role. Sometimes the Twins are just stupid. It's little things like this that make you wonder if we'll ever turn it around.

One little thing after another. It all adds up. That's why they don't win.

Minnesota sports, where mediocrity would be so much better than what we have now.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Twins Extend Hughes' Contract

That's the best money the Twins have spent this offseason, unless of course Hughes is awful this year.

That we got him for so little surprises me. His total contract now is 5 years for $58 million. Less than $12 million a year.  And when his contract is up, he'll still be the same age as Nolasco and Santana are now. Long-term deals with pitchers with a history of arm trouble rarely work out well for the club signing them. The Twins think this makes sense. Hughes is still young AND they aren't promising him BIG money, just good money.

All long-term deals with pitchers are risky, but this seems to make way more sense than signing Mauer to a lifetime contract. I'm more worried about Nolasco and Santana and their deals. I'm starting to get Twins fever either way. I sure hope our pitchers can turn it around this year.


Bengals Beat Broncos

I have a tough decision to make today. I either talk about motivation or embrace the Bengals as one of my new favorite teams.

Actually, after watching them put the kibosh on Denver's offense all night long, it's not hard to root for Cincinnati. They are a very good football team. My allegiances turn quickly. Just so any team but Seattle wins it all this year, I'll be happy.

Go Green Bay! Go Denver! Go New England! Go Cowboys! Go Bengals!

And I still can't believe that the the Falcons and the Panthers are battling for a division title this weekend when neither team has seven wins yet.

Monday, December 22, 2014

NIck Punto

Nick Punto was released by the A's yesterday. He's now available to any team that wants him for a reasonable price. What's interesting to note is that he's made the playoffs every year since he's been released from the Twins. AND that he made the playoffs every year he was with the Twins as well.

Think about it. Contenders sign him. They (Minnesota, Philadelphia, St, Louis, Boston, Oakland, and LA) always make the playoffs with him on the roster. And then miss the playoffs after he is released.

That can't be a coincidence. His most well known plays are getting picked off base in some playoff games but otherwise he's had a remarkably high sports IQ and unrivaled metric numbers. He's like the embodiment of sports success in one little hustling body. And he plays great defense. Wherever you put him.

The Twins could pick him up for a song. But most likely he'll make some other team a playoff team this year. I've been saying this for as long as I've watched Punto. The guy's magic, and he's been proving that for more than a decade now. Better yet, he spreads that magic everywhere he goes.

And the magic departs when he leaves. The Twins have been living without Punto dust for long enough now. It's time to welcome a true legend home.


Football

At one point, with about 4 1/2 minutes left, the Vikings scored 15 points in 11 seconds, to suddenly regain the lead...

...and then they gave up nine points in those last 4 minutes to lose...

... including a blocked punt near the end caused by a horrible snap...

The defense gave the appearance of goodness in the first quarter yesterday as Miami tried to establish a run game. But then Miami discovered that establishing a run game is just one of those stupid football myths that's gotten repeated too often over the years by brain dead-announcers and catatonic coaching staffs.

The Dolphins proved beyond a shadow of a doubt yesterday that a team doesn't need a running game. All you need is a passing offense that's efficient and varied. And you can punch holes into a clueless defense as long as you want.

A loss like that makes a guy want to talk about motivation again. Viking football, Wolves basketball, and Twins baseball are far less interesting than parts 6 - 18 of an ongoing series.

At least the Packers won. And Denver has yet to play. They are the only things left preventing me from more motivation articles.

We all better hope that Denver wins tonight.

Sunday, December 21, 2014

Football

I like how the NFL has Saturday play late in the season just as college football takes a break. I only watched the late game last night because none of the teams are having that great a season. Philly losing to Washington basically eliminated them from the playoff picture yesterday. Their only hope is to win next week and for the Cowboys to lose two weeks in a row. It's possible but unlikely.

The Niners blew a huge lead last night, but they weren't going anywhere, anyway. So as much as I like the idea of NFL Saturday play, my interest in the league, including the Vikings, is waning. The playoffs should be fun, but we've got a couple of weeks before those games start.

And Minnesota State from Mankato LOST 13-0 yesterday in their Division II championship game. Of course they did. They're from Minnesota.

Vikings at Miami today at noon. Two very similar teams with similar records and disappointing seasons. Miami has a two game losing streak going in. We'll see what happens.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Help for Stroke Victims?

This one has personal interest for me. From ESPN.

DETROIT -- Gordie Howe's family says the hockey great has made a dramatic improvement after he participated in a stem cell clinical trial.

Gordie Howe's family has described the hockey great's response to a non-surgical stem cell treatment as "truly miraculous."

The 86-year-old Howe had a serious stroke in late October, but in a statement released through the Detroit Red Wings on Friday, his family said his physical therapists have been "astonished" by his progress.

Executives from Stemedica Cell Technologies contacted the family and facilitated Howe's participation in the clinical trial. He had a two-day, non-surgical treatment earlier this month.

"The treatment included neural stem cells injected into the spinal canal on Day 1 and mesenchymal stem cells by intravenous infusion on Day 2," the family said. "His response was truly miraculous. At the end of Day 1 he was walking with minimal effort for the first time since his stroke. By Day 2 he was conversing comfortably with family and staff at the clinic."

The family says Howe has been able to help out with daily household chores, and when tested, his ability to name items has gone from less than 25 percent before the treatment to 85 percent.

"Although his short-term memory, strength, endurance and coordination have plenty of room for improvement, we are hopeful that he will continue to improve in the months to come," the family said. "As a family, we are thrilled that dad's quality of life has greatly improved, and his progress has exceeded our greatest expectations."

Wolves Lose To Celitics

See, I TOLD you this is all you'd get when I stopped talking about motivation.

Friday, December 19, 2014

Thoughts

One of the reasons I've been spending so much time on discussing motivation lately is that it's too hard to pick a subject based on sports. I don't like hockey enough to talk about the Wild. The Wolves are having a really bad season AGAIN. And the Twins biggest news this offseason is that they will be basically the same team again this year. So we're relying on a new manager and new coaches, and old players suddenly becoming better, to turn it all around. I'm not saying they won't, but the odds are against them.

And then you have the Vikings, a team that was so quietly eliminated from the playoffs last week that they didn't even know it. I like this good, young team, but other than Teddy having a fine rookie season for someone so young, there isn't much to speculate on or delve into. We just have to wait for everyone to mature some. And with the Twins were just waiting for some to retire...

So let's talk Jay Cutler. The Bears made him the highest paid player in football this season as part of seven-year deal that they gave him last year. And for whatever reason, he has become the worst QB in the league this year. He's personally responsible for 24 of his teams turnovers.

Now the Bears are benching him. I think the primary reason for this is to stop him from getting injured. IF he stays healthy, the Bears can cut him after the season is over by paying him a $10 million buyout on his long-term deal. If he gets injured, they won't be able to do that, and then they'll be forced to pay him for at least two more seasons. They clearly don't want him for two more seasons and this is the best way for them to deal with a really bad situation.

I wish the Twins had that option with Joe Mauer. "Is he well?" "Yes." "Well what are you waiting for? Cut him, quick. before he sneezes or something!" Baseball contracts, for some weird reason are always guaranteed.

The only baseball story I found interesting this week was that the Dodgers have so much money that they are actually paying some of their long-term contract players to leave!

The Los Angeles Dodgers are under new management, and the new management is unloading a lot of the previous management's commitments.

This involves writing off some pretty substantial contracts:

Reliever Brian Wilson, designated for assignment Tuesday, is owed $9.5 million for 2015.
The Dodgers will pay the Miami Marlins $12.5 million to take starter Dan Haren off their hands.
They will pay the San Diego Padres $32 million over the next five years to take the contract of outfielder Matt Kemp.

Add it up, and those three moves mean the Dodgers are paying $54 million so Kemp, Haren and Wilson will play for somebody else.

$54 million is roughly the equivalent of the largest free-agent signing in Twins history (Ervin Santana).

Those big market teams and their ability to waste money is unmatched.


Thursday, December 18, 2014

Motivation -The End

I'm getting as sick of writing this series as those who might be reading it. So I'm ending this today.

I think.

In summary, there are two basic ways of making changes in your behavior. One is motivation, which primarily comes from outside influences. The other is desire, which comes from within. Motivation is the weaker, immature form of accomplishing change, and it's short term. Longer lasting change, brought about by inner desire, is the reasoning, maturing change that comes through a planned lifelong discipline.

Like everything else in life we all start out with the immature approach. Those who grow up, see what needs to be done and just do it. Motivation is powered by emotion. Desire is a reasoned approach. One works the short-term, the other is in it for the long haul. Desire is the form of change mature people grow into.

As a health club trainer years ago, it's easier to talk about fitness and diet goals when writing this series of blogs, but the change I'm talking about comes about in every area of life. It could be education, career paths, or even what kind of person you are. The principles are the same.

I also write from a one-time coach's perspective. Nothing is harder than motivating people WHO KNOW THEY SHOULD BE IN BETTER SHAPE but have no real desire to do so. Why? Because people are lazy. They just want the results WITHOUT putting in the work, and that problem is compounded  by people wanting those results FAST.

You know as an instructor that fast change without work is impossible. You also know that most people, when faced with that fact will quit within a few months, because even the best motivation from you will not be enough. You can make it fun, you can give them a good diet, you can be reasonable and varied in your approach, THEY WILL SEE RESULTS, and they will still quit. Why? Because they had unreasonable, immature expectations AND too much work was needed to see further results.

We live in a society like that. Our goal as coaches was simply to have people mature enough in the first few weeks so that they could see the best way to change isn't a t-shirt slogan. We needed them to desire the change so that they could see the need to continue. At the beginning of these blogs, I said that people will not change unless they really want to. BUT THAT IS ONLY THE FIRST STEP.

I mentioned yesterday a summary of the other steps, and have decided NOT TO EXPLORE THEM FURTHER. I'll summarize them again and finish this. Foremost you must desire change. Secondly you have to figure out for yourself if it's a worthwhile, good change worth pursuing. Better put, after thinking about it, it's the time that you start committing to change. Third in all of this, if the doctor okays this, you have to figure out if can you commit personal resources (time, money, extreme effort) into this. Are you in it for the long haul?

Along the way you have to design some type of game plan, detailing what you expect to accomplish, and how you expect to accomplish it.

And finally, you have to put in the effort. Lots of effort. Lots and lots of effort. Sometimes never ending effort.

 With the right coach, the right game plan, the right early motivation, and the gradual changeover into long-term desire, change is possible.

Now a quick plug. IF you need someone to motivate you, if you NEED someone to get it all going, if you need someone to help you work out a fitness and diet plan that works, someone who will help you see the best way to get better at changing your physical health and fitness level (and be with you every step of the way if you need it) I'd like to suggest my brother, Brent Mielke, at Dungeon's Gym. He isn't just the best in the area, he's the best. Period.

He'll motivate you when you need it, but he'll also help you build the desire. The success stories he's had, with average people like you, is unmatched. Give him a call. He'll take it from there.

And be prepared to put in a lot of fun effort.




Stat of the Week

Terry Bridgewater's completion percentage of 75.6% is the SECOND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED by an NFL rookie QB throwing at least 40 passes in a game. It was also the fifth highest in the league this year by ANY QB this season.

Go Teddy!


Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Motivation Part 4

There's a story that goes something like this:

"A guy was telling his personal trainer that he had some new goals this year. The trainer, always looking for new ways to motivate his client, told him not to worry, he had already mapped out a game plan for him. He, with the coaches help, would do something none of his clients had ever done before. He would compete in a marathon race once a month, and train for those races like no one has ever trained before. He would become a star at long distance running.

After eight months of placing high in eight different marathon races, his client suddenly quit. The coach asked him if we was feeling okay. He told the coach he was fine. The coach then gave him the most incredible motivational speech anyone had ever heard. He told his client he had never seen anyone put so much time and effort into training. He told him how good he was. He told him no one else could do what he was accomplishing.

The client just looked a this coach and told him goodbye. The coach was hurt and confused. He finally asked his client why he was quitting. His client told him.

Earlier this year I came to tell you that I had some new goals this year, I did. The main one was to cut back on my training schedule. You see, my life has been on hold ever since I met you. I'm ALWAYS training. My new goal this year was to read a book a week, and to start taking piano lessons again. I really love reading and I want to play keyboard in my friend's band. With all this extra running you had me doing this year, I haven't had time for either. It's time I started working on my goals."



So what is it about low carb diets that work so well? Good question. The simplest explanation that I can possibly give you is that processed sugar and starchy foods (flour, pasta, and potatoes) appeal to the pleasure center of your brain in much the same way that narcotic drugs do. They offer short term pleasure but also cause your body to want even more of them to stay satisfied, in effect, offering no real satisfaction unless you keep eating them all day long. That's why most people crave things like potato chips and cookies after they start eating them. The only thing that stops these people from eating them for awhile is if they simply get too full to consume more. However, as soon as they get more room, even a little bit, they are hungry again.

It truly is a vicious, non-ending cycle for a lot of people who have weight issues. I was that way. My wife was that way. Most of the people I have talked to about diet and weight problems have had that issue.  BUT miraculously, when they tried the low carb diet, their constant cravings, their non-ending hunger vanished just like it did for me.

It doesn't go away permanently however. If you choose to still eat those type of foods on a regular basis, all the cravings and non-ending hunger will return. Knowing this is the simple key to most weight loss.

That doesn't mean you give up cookies, pasta dishes, and chips completely. It just means that you have to plan when you will have them AND you plan to have them less often. If you do that, refining the idea and approach as you go along, you will have weight loss success. If you choose not to continue, you will most likely fail. It really is that simple.

Which finally brings me to why long term motivation is not the answer to things you desire to change about yourself. Motivation works on the emotions. It pumps you up. It makes you FEEL embarrassed. It makes you FEEL good about yourself. It can do a number of things, but it does them all on a lower emotional level. That level is not sustainable over a long period of time. People who rely on it will always ultimately fail. Those who do succeed need much more than that.

And that's why I'm writing this down. This isn't just about what I think. Most of this has come from years of reading, studying, and personal experience. It comes from major sports stars and their biographies. It comes from doctors and the studies they've done. It comes from truly successful coaches, life-coaches, and mentors. It even comes from conservative theologians who use the Bible and its principles as a real guide book to living life. I'm just kind of condensing it all down into a summary of what they are saying. I'm condensing it down into pill form so that everyone can swallow it easier. I haven't got all the answers, but I'm willing to refine these ideas as time goes on. I might even be wrong in some of the ways I've put this together. I'll fix those things with more thought as I go along as well.

Here's the basics. We'll explore each in more depth as this series of blog posts continue. These steps involve higher level responses. They require desire, thinking, planning, reasoning, and daily discipline. And if you haven't guessed it yet, these are the higher level skills that are required to succeed. Discipline trumps motivation every time. It is the key to successful change in every area of life worth changing. We'll talk more on that later as well. But first, here are the steps:

1) Have a defined goal and make sure it's truly important enough to change your life for.

2) Ask yourself tough questions, "SHOULD I be pursuing this goal?" Is it a good goal worth my time and effort to pursue? Is it a moral goal? Will I be bettering not just myself but others by accomplishing it? Will God be glorified in accomplishing it? (I know a lot of people will be taken back with the second step, because they wonder, "What does God have to with this?" That's a fair question and will be dealt with when we get there.)

3) Do you have good detailed plan in mind to accomplish this goal? Do you have a backup plan in mind if you find out your first plan wasn't as good or as detailed as you as you thought it was? Did you write the plan down so that you KNOW EXACTLY what it is? Are you willing to put real time, effort, and money into it?

4) Do you have the means to accomplish the goal? Let me tell you, this requires a lot more work than the current motivational philosophy of "you can do anything if you set your mind to it."

5) Do the needed work for as long as necessary by developing daily discipline.

(more next time)
 



Twins

It's amazing that the Twins early this season will look a LOT like the Twins from last season. We'll have ONE different person in the lineup (Hunter) and one different regular starter (Santana). Basically we will have a few different fill-in bench players and bullpen guys, but what we HAD before is what we still have.

Predictions? Our pitching, which was awful, should be a tad better. Our hitting and ability to score runs should stay great. And our defense, which was as bad as anyone's, got a little worse.

I'll miss the two guys named Chris. Both Pamalee and Colabello were removed from the 40-man roster to make room for the new guys.

Our hope this year is that pitchers like Nolasco, Santana, and Pelfrey will return to their once former "greatness" OR, at very least become cagey veterans, and that Hughes will once again look like the Cy Young candidate he was last year. And that at least one of the young guy options becomes a superstar this season.

That's a lot to hope for. Maybe the combination of new managers and coaches will really click with this roster. Maybe guys like Vargas and Plouffe will have the banner years we've always dreamed of. Maybe Mauer will redevelop his swing and become an MVP candidate again as well.

And if we aren't better, there's a couple guys in the minors we can still wait for a little longer.

It's baseball. We're allowed to think this way in the off-season. 


Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Motivation Part Three

Over the last week or so, I've been detailing some of the struggles I have had the past couple of years health-wise. I've also been gradually weaving in my opinions about the overvaluation of "motivation" and, those who teach it, in our lives.

Not only is motivational teaching (some would say preaching) not needed, it often gets in the way of lifelong progress of achieving necessary life goals, and the road that leads to those goals. It may play a SMALL beneficial role at the beginning of the process, if it's done properly, but in every other way, it's the pouty whiney younger sister, or the non-stop nagging wife of achievement. You see, in a world of ever-present motivational speakers telling you how good you are and how you can achieve anything if you set your mind to it, it becomes a "demotivation" to most of the people they are talking to. I hope to explain more about that later as well.

Why? Because it is the poor substitute for what is REALLY needed. You want to know what that thing really is? I'm getting to that. Keep reading.

Last time I mentioned what I (and everyone for that matter) needed to succeed at something was a REASON to achieve it. And it has to be a really GOOD reason. That deep, full, underlying reason will always be the determining factor in the success or failure of reaching your goal. Speeches won't do it. Slogans won't do it. Friends won't do it, Coaches won't do it. Education won't do it, Even ability won't do it. A good reason will be the driving force behind any change you wish to accomplish. If you don't see that reason as IMPORTANT, you will have no reason to keep pursuing it. And that is the biggest secret to achieving any goal. You TRULY have to WANT IT. IF YOU FAIL to achieve that goal, this will be the primary reason. That only makes sense. But so many people MISS that common sense approach that it has to be pointed out. If you SAY you want to be the best nuclear physicist in the world to your friends but you really don't (in your heart of hearts), I guarantee that you won't be. It's all starts with REALLY, REALLY WANTING IT. It's not just something you talk about. It's not just something you think about. It has to be one of the most important things in your life.

But there are OTHER factors preventing you as well. And it's NOT all the "negativity in your life" that's preventing you either. That's another one of those lies spoken by people who teach and preach motivation. The opposite of that is the word they've termed the past few years, "positivity." If you know people who use those terms to motivate you, flee from them. I'm not saying they aren't good people, I'm saying they will get in the way of you achieving real goals. Positivity and negativity have nothing to do with the success or failure of your goals. It places the success or failure of your goals on people, events, or circumstances OUTSIDE of you, when real success or failure is determined by internal factors within your control.

Those are the factors we are going to talk about. I've mentioned that one of the hardest things for me in my weight loss goal was overcoming constant, ongoing hunger. And we're not talking "kind of hungry," we're talking ravenous, "I need to eat something, NOW," kind of hunger. ALL DAY LONG.

I knew any weight loss goal would be impossible without figuring out WHY I was so very hungry all the time. I had heard of low carb diets before and had always dismissed them as nonsense. People didn't actually use them for long-term weight loss success did they?

As it turns out, most people who have tried just about every diet under the sun, and it didn't work, have failed for the same reason that I failed. They were hungry all the time. Eating less certainly wasn't the answer. It just made them MORE hungry...

(more next time)


The "Latest" On Peterson

A story leaked yesterday that said the NFL lied to Adrian Peterson about how long he would be suspended. They told him it would be "two games," and then decided to pull a fast one and made it longer...

WELL...

.... actually that HAS BEEN the story all along.

I've detailed this in earlier blogs. You see, the league really wanted Adrian to show up for that Friday meeting and demonstrate his remorse FOR REAL (or at least pretend well) BEFORE ANY PENALTY WAS HANDED DOWN.

In typical arrogant Adrian Peterson style, Adrian blew them off. As a result they were forced to take a hardline approach and go with the stricter penalty. That phone call that everyone is talking about had the whole plan detailed. Two games BUT it all revolved around that ONE pre-hearing meeting.

The league gave Adrian an "out," a way to save face, in a private meeting with league officials before anything official was to take place. Their thinking was that it could be settled quietly and privately. His lawyers and the union screwed up so badly by telling him not to go.

And now we have this mess.

Adrian was stupid and continues to be stupid, and the longer this drags out, the less value he, his name, and his image have. I said this once and it bears repeating, he told his son, when he beat him, to take his punishment like a man and to quit squirming.

It's time for Adrian Peterson to do the same thing. THAT WILL SHOW EVERYONE THE REMORSE THEY ARE LOOKING FOR. Thanking the league for giving him a second chance would be the icing on the cake.

But Adrian just keeps on squirming. Those whoopings that he received as a small child didn't teach him anything. In fact, they made him into the man he is is today.

And that man is not honorable. Those that don't see it that way are not honorable either.

Monday, December 15, 2014

My Broncos Win

What a difference turnovers can make. Without those two STUPID interceptions before the end of the first half, the Vikings looked great. The defense played superbly the whole game.  We outplayed the Lions in every facet EXCEPT during those two lousy turnovers. We missed three field goals, any one of which would have won us the game.

But what does it matter? The Vikings were in reality eliminated from playoff contention quietly on Thursday, and most of the team, including the coach didn't even realize it.

And Buffalo beat the Packers? Huh? Rodgers with no TD passes is unusual. Rodgers with two INTs is even more unusual. Both in one game? That's the first time that's happened. But until he fumbled on the goal line near the end of the game, they were STILL IN IT. Detroit now possesses the tie breaker. If they win out, they take the north.

My only solace yesterday was that Peyton Manning, sicker than a dog with the flu, still pulled out a win for Denver. A poor day of football overall. What made it worse?

The Cowboys won last night.

A poor night, too.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Football

Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariotta was the run-a-way winner of the Heisman trophy last night. With his 53 TDs, no one else was even close. The number two Ducks, who still run a hyper-speed offense based on their former coach Chip Kelly's gameplan, will now face LAST YEAR'S Heisman winner, Jamis Winston and his number THREE ranked Florida State Gators in the Rose Bowl.

Two Heisman winners squaring off for the right to play for the National Championship. Finally, a college football game that matters.

All the Vikings games were scheduled for noon this season, but with them still in the hunt and the Lions having a good chance at the playoffs as well, their game today has been pushed back to the late afternoon start. I'm grateful. Our church is having it's first holiday meal today (about halfway between Thanksgiving and Christmas.)

Now, I get to enjoy BOTH.

Saturday, December 13, 2014

Peterson's Appeal Fails

The new arbitrator agreed with the NFL on this one. He ruled that Peterson still doesn't understand the seriousness of his crime. He ruled that Peterson is mistaken in his belief that the NFL is the bad guy in all of this. And he ruled that Peterson has to complete his planned counseling so that he can at least attempt to secure a better grip on reality.

He made it clear that Peterson has the wrong priorities, and that the Players Association isn't helping anyone by arguing players' rights on this one. He ruled Peterson is a deeply disturbed individual that can't distinguish right from wrong, and that primarily is the reason that he will have to serve the punishment he was given.

He ruled that this particular case is far more important than the precedent it may set. He ruled that Peterson needs help desperately.

At least that's MY interpretation by reading between the lines.

Good for the arbitrator. He got everything right. He wasn't there to  compromise and smooth everything over. He was there to help Peterson. The problem is Adrian Peterson is still too dumb to realize it. He'll be taking the issue to court next.

Adrian sees himself as some bright knight in shining armor protecting player's rights, never realizing that, in reality, he is a pathetic thug and punk who beats up defenseless children.

Yes, Adrian needs help.

It's too bad the NFL Player's Association only worries about how much money this is costing him. They could do some real good by doing the right thing themselves.

Friday, December 12, 2014

Motivation Part Two

So what do you do after a year-long neck injury that is soon followed up with a stroke,  BOTH of which take away the strength in your right hand and arm?

You start working out in any way the doctor gives you permission and you wait for progress on the right side of your body because that's what you SHOULD do. I was extremely fortunate. I was extremely BLESSED to be able to come back from both injuries through lots of training and therapy.

Which brings me back to the original subject of motivation. I exaggerated a bit in the first part of this blog when I said that motivation has NOTHING to do with it. In reality, it plays a very small role. You'll never do ANYTHING unless you can manage in your own mind a very good reason for doing what you wish to accomplish, So what was my motivation? I really wanted to be able to do the things I used to do, about as well as I used to, before the two traumas.

My doctors and therapists agreed those were reasonable goals. In other words I had the REASON and the CAPABILITY to achieve my desire. The only thing missing was a plan on HOW to achieve it. The therapists supplied that by giving me a list a list of exercises and drills that would allow me to get small motor functions back in  my hand. Strength would follow as I continued light weight training, going up in the amount lifted over time.

I want to emphasize this, with my neck injury, I had to do what I could while I WAITED for my pinched nerves to start working again, and I had NO GUARANTEE THAT THEY WOULD. If you have very little grip and your fingers tingle and can't grip a weight, you should not be lifting said weight. It's dangerous and could do further damage. The stroke was different. IF I worked out hard, I was told I SHOULD get better. The two situations had to be treated entirely differently.

Another way I was blessed? I had time to mostly recover from ONE trauma before the next one occurred. IF the stroke had come at the same time as the neck injury, I might never have gotten any real function back. Because even though I had the goal, the capability would not have been there, and by the time my neck healed, the atrophy caused by NOT working out would have been so much harder to overcome. With strokes it's important to work out with what you can immediately after the stroke to stimulate new nerve growth. Your body has to establish new nerve tissue pathways to the affected muscles. Time is critical. That's one of the reason I have a difficult time training my right lat. It was nowhere near recovered when the stroke hit. As a result, I have yet to get it's function back. I might be capable of getting some function back now, so that's my current goal, but I'm also aware that one of the leading causes of my neck injury originally was training my lats hard. Straining to do lat work caused the disk to slip. I was literally training too hard. Moderation and care are going to part of any new lat training as a result.

Which again brings me back to motivation. BEFORE either incident, I was training with weights and walking/ and or jogging regularly, several days a week, most of my adult life. You would never know that by looking at me. At one point, about five years ago, I was over 300 pounds. I actually wondered how that could happen when I worked out so hard all the time. NOT decathlon hard mind you, but much harder than the average adult male of similar age.

Yes, I ate a lot of food, but I did that not because of some great "emotional need," I did it for the same reason I always did it, the same reason EVERYBODY eats. I ate like that because I was always HUNGRY.  After discovering the "low carb diet approach" I dropped the weight relatively easily in a matter of months, not because I had better motivation, not because I had better capabilities, it was because I had a plan that worked. It was a plan that removed my HUNGER. I was missing the knowledge on how to achieve permanent lifelong weight loss.

I want to emphasize this part again. I didn't lose the weight because I was more MOTIVATED. I lost the weight because I finally knew HOW. My goal was always the same. My motivation was always the same. Only the MEANS of achieving it changed. I needed a plan that addressed my biggest problem, unremitting hunger. The low carb diet did that.

(This is taking far longer than expected, more next time or when I have time...)

Thumbs Up Or Thumbs Down?

Like always, on the last day of the winter meetings, when everybody else is packing up and getting ready to go home, the Twins announce and make their annual, big, off-season deal. This time it's the signing of Ervin Santana to a 4-year, $55 million deal. No doubt about it, this is now the biggest free-agent signing in club history, subplanting the huge Ricky Nolasco deal the Twins had last year. The question on everyone's mind? Was he worth it?

My question to you is this, was Nolasco worth it? Ricky had flashes of brilliance, but overall, this past season Nolasco was a disaster for the Twins. AND YET... his metrics (the stats that matter) in every category except wins and ERA were far superior to Santana's last season. Santana's best season was 2008 and he's been living on that reputation for six years. If nothing else, that tells us he's been a shell of his former self for quite a while now. I should mention that his ERA last year was 3.99 in the National League. That translates to a full 4.50 in the American League and it's full-time DHs.

So why did the Twins sign him? Primarily he's an innings eater. The Twins fully expect him to give us 200 innings a year. That's why we sign most of our older starters. We want guys that give us 7 innings for thirty starts every year. They don't have to good. They have to be durable.

Obviously for me this a big thumbs down. It's not so much that he's bad, it's that he's average and expensive. It's the same problem I have with Hunter. For less money, and less time commitment he'd be a good third or fourth starter. We're paying him like he'll be our best. And everyone knows he not that. Between Nolasco, Mauer, Santana, and Hunter the Twins will be shelling out over $60 million dollars this season. That means everyone else on the roster, about 20 guys, will be splitting the remaining $45 million, or about $2 million each.

None of the big four are worth it. Santana is just another huge, long-term financial commitment that's delaying our youth movement. I'd rather give young arms a chance than invest in old, damaged goods.

Even if he HAS a huge, great season for us THIS year, we're committed to his aging arm for at least three more seasons. That's just another rotation spot that won't go to one of our young guns for three more years.

I'm hoping I'm wrong. I really want him to be a big deal in Minnesota. But guys like Pelfrey and Nolasco have soured my view on the Twins being capable of judging good, aging pitchers.




Thursday, December 11, 2014

Motivation

This is a subject I've been thinking about writing about for some time.

When I was younger I always wondered how athletes motivated themselves to train hard every day. What do they do to get them out of bed in the morning and go running for half an hour. Every single day. What mind tricks do they use on themselves to lift weights 4 or 5 days a week to get stronger and build endurance.

What is the motivation that gets them them going? What is it that KEEPS them going?

And I discovered, quite by accident, motivation has NOTHING TO DO WITH IT!

Over the last 6 or 7 years, I've rarely missed a workout. I admit then when a disc went out in my neck a couple of years ago and I basically lost most of my grip on my right side. Lifting weights became impossible. My right lat muscle was for all intents and purposes was paralyzed for several months. Even to this day it has not regained much strength, though I am finally to the point where training it again is an option.

But the worse part was the pain. I couldn't find any position where I could get comfortable. Walking, standing, sleeping, sitting were all impossible. Except a slight recline position where I could not allow my head to relax backward or forward. I had to HOLD it in an unrelaxed position all day and all night for several weeks to allow the disc to slip back into place. Anything else was intolerable agony. After a while I found a balance point, with the aid of pillows, that permitted me to sleep an hour or two each night, always aware that if I let my neck move, the agony would return.

Thankfully the disc slipped back completely after several months. The pain lessoned as time went on, but I still found myself with very little grip in my right hand. Through training it came back SOME, but then just as I was about to start training with heavier weights because my grip was better, I had an unexpected stroke. The right side of my body was affected once more, this time in an even more dramatic way...

(More tomorrow. It's time to workout.)

Stunning Wolves Victory

Going into last night, the Wolves had established themselves as on of the worst teams in the league with a 4-16 record. Portland, on the other hand, was 17-4, off to their best start in franchise history.

Basically Portland was near the top of the western conference while the Wolves were all alone in last place. In the NBA those positions mean something.

Except last night, the Wolves were the better team. The reason? 19-year old Andrew Wiggens, the first pick in the draft, and acquired from the Cavs for Kevin Love, had a nifty double-double last night including some clutch shooting late.

The Wolves are young, but I still want to see more of this. The season is more than 1/4 over already and they've only got FIVE wins. Pekovic is never healthy and we'll be missing Rubio for several more weeks, but they can win with who they currently have. They proved that last night.

Of course, they are only 2-8 in their last 10 games, so I'm not really expecting much. I think I have to see a few more wins before I get too excited.

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

White Sox Spending Money

But First---Sports Notes:

Cam Newton was in a car accident yesterday, cracking two vertebra in his lower back. Reports are that the injury is similar to the stress fractures that Tony Romo had in his back earlier this season. He'll need some time to heal, but should be fine. At least according to early reports.

LeBron James and Kevin Love have been on a tear as of late. The Cavs have now won eight straight. I don't believe the Wolves have won 8 straight in the franchise's entire history. I'm willing to bet they won't do it this season either.

The White Sox started spending A LOT of money yesterday. They traded to get Jeff Samardzija, a hard throwing starter with an ERA of 2.99 last season AND they traded to get David Robertson, the Yankees closer who took Mariano Rivera's place last year. Even though the Yankees had a tough season, Robertson did not. He had 39 saves. PLUS they signed free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche and reliever Zack Duke, the best free agents available at their positions.

The Sox have fired a shot across the bow of the American League Central. They believe they are going to compete for the crown this year. Where the White Sox are making noise, there are still crickets chirping in the direction of our beloved Twins who usually pick up scraps after the winter meetings are over. They already spent over $10 million on Torii Hunter you know. Who else could you possibly want who could help the Twins more?

Max Scherzer, the free-agent starter that just about everybody has their eyes on, is still available. Jon Lester, the gem of this year's free agent class, is not. He signed with the Cubs yesterday for 6 seasons/ $155 million. There is NO WAY he is worth that much with all of his arm troubles.

To be fair, I think the White Sox over spent for a lot of their recently acquired (average) talent. IF the Twins had done the same thing, I would have criticized them for wasting money. I don't think they will be significantly better this year with all the money they just spent. KC and Detroit shouldn't have to worry about them.

My basic rules? 1) Spend money on good YOUNG starters offering good short term deals and don't be afraid to trade for them. 2) Spend money on great fielders (they're usually pretty cheap). And 3) if you want to spend a lot on long term deals, make sure they are young and have a lot of power (league leading home run power). That formula will win as long as you don't play "Gardy Ball".


Tuesday, December 9, 2014

I Want This Shirt For Christmas

It's an alternate universe sort of thing.


Oliva and Kaat Miss

Tony O was one vote short of The Hall. Jim Kaat, two. No new legends were allowed in.

Sigh.

So close. The problem with both players is that they were great BUT for a shorter period of time than most 'famers.

In other news, Chris Colabello was claimed off waivers yesterday by the Blue Jays. That opens up a spot on the Twins official 40-man protected roster at least.

I watched a lot of the Packer's game last night. The first half was great. The Falcons made a game of it at the end. It's weird how Green Bay can score 43 points in a game and STILL give you the feeling that they are misfiring. You actually expect Rodgers to be perfect, especially with the time his offensive line gives him. When he's not, you wonder if something's wrong.

In either case, I think most football fans would be surprised that the Vikings have a better record this season than the Falcons. I guess that's why they play the games.

Go Pack! Go Vikes! Go Denver!

Monday, December 8, 2014

A Great Day For Minnesota Football

Teddy looked much more comfortable as the Vikings quarterback yesterday. He still doesn't get much protection from the offensive line, as he was hurried, harassed, and sacked way too often yesterday. But through it all, he kept his cool and still managed to find the receivers he needed.

Especially on that last play.

I'd like to scream at the Vikings defense for letting Gino Smith get away so many times yesterday, but he is one elusive quarterback. In any other game I think the Vikings defense would have had 10 sacks playing like that, So I'll just chalk it up to, at least for one day, Gino being just that good.

13 games into the season and The Vikings are still in the hunt. Yeah, they have to win the rest of their games to be serious contenders, but stranger things have happened. I'm already looking forward to next week's game.

Speaking about strange things happening...

The Golden Gopher Football team is going to be playing on NEW YEAR'S Day in the Citrus Bowl!!!

Even with good coaches like Lou Holtz and Glenn Mason the Gophers never got that opportunity. It'll be the first time on OVER 50 years that they have the privilege of playing on January 1st. Coach Jerry Kill has brought this program a long way in a very short amount of time.

And they deserve it. Their only losses were to Ohio State, who are in the final four tournament, TCU, who just got bounced from the tournament to make room for Ohio State, and Wisconsin, who just played Ohio State for the Big Ten Championship.

AND they'll be playing Missouri, who just got beat by Alabama, the number one team in the country, in THEIR conference championship game Saturday.

Whooo!! The Gophers are playing with the big boys now. No more Outback or Outhouse Bowls for them any more. No...sir... ree. As George Jefferson used to say, "We're moving on up, to the big time!"

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Jerick McKinnon

The news just keeps getting worse for the Minnesota Vikings.

Rookie running back sensation Jarik McKinnon is done for the season. It was reported that he was having back problems the last couple of weeks. Well the Viking made that official late yesterday when they placed him on the reserve list for the rest of the season. He needs a back procedure.

McKinnon had been averaging  almost 5 yards a carry this season on over 100 carries. Based on a full normal full season load it's easy to see how he could be headed for a 1,500 season in the near future IF he can get (and stay) healthy.

Joe Banyard, who has been showing some impressive running himself as of late (while subbing for Jeric) will simply get more rushes now, with Ben Tate and Matt Asiata sharing the load.

I'm looking forward to the Jets game today. I'm never optimistic anymore. I just haven't seen enough of this offense to know if its going to be good. Missing and losing key players throughout the season doesn't allow anyone to get a good handle on them. I'm hoping that includes the Jets...

We'll all find out together.

Hoping to see Denver today and Green Bay tomorrow night as well.


Tendencies

I've talked a lot about metrics in baseball lately, and some people still seem confused by what they are, even if they see them being used more and more. Today I'm going to give you a brief primer on their use and value in sports.

Have you ever seen a weird infield shift for a batter when he comes up to the plate? You know the one.  A strong left-handed batter like Jim Thome comes to the plate. The pitcher has pretty good control and pitches him inside. The infielders all move to the right side of the infield where the third baseman is now in the shortstop position. The shortstop is playing deep and to the right of second, the second baseman is in shallow right field like a rover in softball, and the first baseman is playing deep behind first. And the outfielders are mirroring that same alignment. If you're at a game live, that kind of shift looks unreal. But then Thome hits it right at the second baseman playing rover on a line drive and he's out.

That's metrics put to use in real world playing situations. And that's why you see Joe Mauer making so many more outs than he used to. Players tendencies are recorded by statisticians. The good managers see what those tendencies are and adjust their pitching and defensive alignments appropriately. If those new alignments lead to more outs and less hits, they keep those alignments, or fine tune them even further as time goes on.

Great gifted hitters will have the ability to negate some of the metrics taken on them. They'll learn to bunt more down the third base line where no one is playing. They'll adjust their stance in the batter's box. They'll adjust the way they hold or swing the bat. They'll make the shift less effective thus freeing themselves from those awful shifts.

The "not so great hitters" will simply make more outs from now on. Mauer is a good example of that. It's the main reason that guys like Aaron Hicks can make such an unbelievable splash when they first come up and then fizzle out so quickly. If you don't have the ability to adjust to the "book of tendencies" on you, the metrics taken will kill your career. That's the difference between good hitters and poor hitters. Making adjustments, based on tendencies, is what metrics are all about.

Which brings me to Torii Hunter. I hate to rag on him so much, but he's the perfect example of a physically gifted player who never learned to make adjustments defensively. When he was younger he had the physical tools to outrun many balls that he wasn't really in position for. He had the arm to throw out players any time they tried to advance on him.

But he never learned HOW to really field his position. Because he never developed the ability to see tendencies in players hitting, he is now OUT OF POSITION when a batter hits. The metrics show this. He also never developed a feel for batted balls and where they are about to go, thus his reactions, which are slower than every other right fielder in the league, betray him. The metrics show this as well.

It's also one one the reasons he'll most likely make a poor coach or mentor when he retires. He won't be able to pass on good fielding habits to younger players because he never knew or practiced those habits himself. If anything, you don't want him going anywhere near someone like a Hicks or Buxton, At best he'll teach them nothing. At worst, he'll teach them bad habits of things they shouldn't do.

I talked about that a bit when I talked about why great players rarely make great managers. The great players who relied on their physical gifts can't teach. Great players who LEARNED how to be great, by seeing tendencies, still have the potential to be good mentors. I believe guys like Molitor and Cudduer fall into that category.

Great players and managers have been using metrics for decades, they just didn't know it, because it wasn't labeled as such, and it came as naturally to them as physical skills came to Torii. The faster and better you see these tendencies, these patterns of play, the better you and your team will play.

I'm hoping Molitor will see the need to make metric adjustments very early on in his managing career. You see, the real greats learn how to make adjustments, even when they are no longer playing.


College Football

I mentioned for the last two seasons that the BCS rankings in college football made more sense than anything else that was planned, where the top TWO teams,  determined by sophisticated polling, simply went against each other at the end to determine the national champion. I reasoned that nothing else would be any better (other than a plus-one bowl if more than one team was undefeated at the end of the season.) I said if there was a play-off system in place, lots of very good or great ONE LOSS TEAMS would still miss the tournament, creating even more controversy and more hurt feelings.

Guess what?

I was right.

The four top ranked teams won their last games this week. Three of those teams have one loss. The single team that is undefeated, last year's national champion Florida State, did not look very good in most of their wins against weaker opponents this year. As a result you have a controversial top four. AND other one loss teams like number 5 Ohio State, and number 6 Baylor, who also had great wins yesterday, are clinging to the hope that the selection committee today will still somehow include THEM in the final four, while removing at least one of the other slotted teams.

I laugh.

Of course this was going to happen. If you had an eight-team tournament you would have even more teams upset with the selections. With a sixteen team tournament, you would have to start including two-loss teams, thereby leaving out dozens of two-loss teams from the tournament.

Before you know it, you'd have a season-long tournament, where every game mattered for every team, and every single loss potentially could disqualify you from a chance at the national championship.

Which is what college football DID have for the last several seasons.

And it was great. Too bad I was the only one who noticed.

Be careful what you wish for.

Saturday, December 6, 2014

Bridgewater Named Rookie of the Week

Teddy Bridgewater's passing yardage may have been a little low last week with just 138 yards. But his efficiency (15-21) and his TD passes (2) in last week's big win against the Panthers gave him the NFL Rookie of the Week honors for the SECOND time this season.

Teddy is doing the job. If he can continue to keep turnovers low and give us big wins over average teams, he can keep his starting job. So far, he's doing just that. This week we have the Jets at home.

Go Vikes!!

What Are the Twins Planning On Doing In Center Field?

Paul Molitor, with a complete coaching staff now in place, and having the corner outfielders set with Hunter in right and Arcia in left, can now start playing with the most important outfield position, center field. What are his current choices? Who is he looking at?

A signing this week may give us an indication. The Cardinals cut Shane Robinson this week rather than lose him to arbitration. He's been a reserve outfielder for St. Louis the last 3 seasons. He doesn't hit that well (.231 lifetime average) but he is known for his speed and defense. He's not great at anything but the Twins see enough value in him to sign him to a minor league deal with a guarantee to be invited to spring training. He's definitely a viable candidate for centerfield and our reserve outfielder.

Danny Santana is also still in the mix. I think that Molitor would like him to go back to his natural position of shortstop this season, but he realizes, just like Gardy, that we currently don't have a lot of better options in center. Escobar played shortstop well enough last year to leave Santanta in center. Since we tendered Eduardo Nunez an arbitration deal this week, the Twins are looking at HIM as the backup shortstop and our utility infielder. If that's the case, it looks like the Twins are leaning toward keeping Santana in center.

The Twins are also going to pay Jordan Schafer (lifetime .229 average)  over a million dollars to keep him around this season as we offered him arbitration. Aaron Hicks is still in the mix as well. He's too young to give up on at this point in his career, but his stock has really went down the last two seasons. He says he's a switch hitter, but let's face it, the jury is still out on that one.

Hicks, Jordan, Schafer. At least one of these guys will be around when the Twins break spring training. Perhaps two. So the question everyone is asking is what about Byron Buxton?

At this point he probably won't be in the Twins plans this season. Unless he makes a major impact in spring training he's going to spend another year or two in the minors for seasoning. He also has to prove that he can stay healthy. He's always on the disabled list.

Best bet? Santana will be our center fielder at the start of the season. Hicks and Schafer will be around. And Robinson will be a quick call-up if anyone gets hurt or falters.

Buxton, if he can remain healthy, is our future. Just like Sano. The Twins gave Trevor Plouffe arbitration this week, too. That means Sano has to stay healthy and impress us in the minors for at least a few more months. Plouffe is pencilled in at third for the foreseeable future. He deserves it. He was great on offense last year and his fielding was considerably improved. You reward effort. The Twins are doing that.


Friday, December 5, 2014

Cowboys Win Means Vikings No Longer Worst

The MINNESOTA Vikings are no longer the worst team in the NFC north.

Is that the greatest accomplishment I can claim as a Minnesota sports fan? Is my only goal in sports now to simply hope that my team isn't the worst? There are three major team sports in America that generate viewers and revenue, the NBA, the NFL, and MLB. The NHL is obviously the fourth "major" sport but it just doesn't have enough general interest among the sports populist to be considered anywhere near as popular in terms of viewership or revenue, so I'll once again leave them out of the discussion.

The Bears losing to the Cowboys last night and the Vikings moving out of the cellar of the NFC North, at least temporarily, got me thinking. Do other Minnesota sports fans feel bad when our teams lose all the time? Does it affect them and their viewing habits?

The Timberwolves have taken several steps backward this season. I no longer care about the reasons. I simply know I can watch them no longer. They are MY team and yet I can no longer bear to watch them. They don't provide enough entertainment in exchange for the time I invest in them. Time is the most precious commodity we are given. We should never waste it. We should never mindlessly support our teams no matter what. Waning fan support is a GOOD thing. It forces those in charge to DO something about it. Waning interest means less ratings, less attendance and less revenue for that team. Less support for your team when its performing poorly is the only way you personally can help them get better. Its tough love. And it works.

Teams that consistently make bad business decisions over several seasons have to be held accountable by the local fan base. That's what REAL fans do. It sends a message to ownership that you aren't going to support their half-hearted efforts to put yet another losing team on the field. It shows them that you're not stupid. It shows them that you not going to take it anymore.

It's probably the most important thing a fan can do if you really love your team. Because it is YOUR team. Ownership changes regularly with most pro sports franchises. But you are a fan forever. You have to let ownership know this.

Brad Childress is no longer the coach of the Minnesota Vikings. That's good thing. Leslie Frazier is no longer the coach of the Minnesota Vikings. That's a good thing as well. It was fans in grass roots efforts that got those things accomplished. This year, with a new coach, the Vikings have taken real steps toward getting BETTER. Their defense is way better. Their special teams is unreal. And even though their offense has struggled without their number one quarterback and the number one running back in the league, they are putting on credible performances against some of the league's best teams. Am I disappointed they aren't doing better? Of course. I ALWAYS want them to win, every game. But I give them credit for putting a team on the field that is WORTH supporting far more than past seasons.

They cleared out the dead wood. They went with young, hungry players, and they put real EFFORT in to fixing what was wrong. The contrast between what the Vikings are doing this year and what the Timberwolves are doing can't even be compared.

Which brings us to the Twins. My favorite sports team of all-time. Twins management continues to make the wrong moves that will hurt them in the long run. I can't emphasize this enough. Winning baseball teams are no longer the ones that spend the most money. Winning teams are those that spend their limited funds WISELY. And wisely means teams understanding what STATS are important in your players to patch the holes in your entire team.

For instance, the Twins led the league in scoring for FOUR of the SIX months of the regular season. Think of that, they were THE NUMBER ONE OFFENSIVE POWERHOUSE IN ALL OF BASEBALL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SEASON.

That was the one thing the Twins did right. But they STILL had one of the worst records in baseball. That should have told the Twins owners and management that they had problems elsewhere.

Primarily starting pitching and defense. It wasn't Gardy's fault that we signed bad starting pitching, but putting bad gloves on the field was his fault. Our fielding percentage LOOKED good so Gardy didn't see that as a problem. Why? Because he ignored the more precise measurement of defensive metrics, that explained our poor performance in the field. Second to last in the league in that area is going to cause all efforts to fail. And yet when given a choice, this year's management overpaid for an aging legend, that gives us more of the same. A pretty good bat, with the worst ability to play right field IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE.

We didn't need good offense and even WORSE defense from our next outfielder. We needed much better defense and good offense. Was someone like that available for a similar price? Was someone available like that who was a local fan favorite and YOUNGER? Yes, Michael Cuddyer. And his mentoring skills as an easy-going, club house leader is UNMATCHED. Many think he'll be a manager very quickly after his playing days are done. He also gives us flexibility on defensive positions. His fielding percentage AND metrics are about as good as you can get. AND his offense is far better than an aging Hunter. He is a field general that the Twins have been lacking.

The Twins made the wrong choice. Hunter would have been a fine DH for the Twins this season for $5 million dollars. Even if Torii has an okay season at the plate, the Twins did not get better with him on the roster. They got worse. They overpaid for him.

I was talking to a Twins fan at the local grocery store last night. He told me he can no longer watch the Twins because it's too painful. He said the decisions the Twins have made in the past few seasons in terms of who they decided to pay money for and who they let go make being a Twins fan too difficult.

He's a real fan. Losing hurts. Losing without giving effort is painful.

The Twins are not giving us their best effort. They are making it up as they go along, hoping that the average fan will support them no matter what, despite their ongoing painful, mistakes.

Back to my original question, are there other fans that are bothered when their favorite team loses all the time.

Yes, the REAL fans are bothered. It hurts. Especially with the lack of effort by the team's ownership.








Thursday, December 4, 2014

Are Minnesota Baseball Fans Generally Stupid?

Why yes, yes they are.

If the Vikings had signed Chuck Foreman to be their running back this year because of Adrian Peterson's legal difficulties, fans would have revolted. You see, football fans have an easier time spotting aging players who can no longer help their teams win.

But baseball fans, in general, do not possess that discernment. Part of the problem is that superstar players don't always lose ALL of their abilities at once. An aging superstar who can hit could be signed by an AL team as the regular DH, and excel at that position for several seasons. I LIKE that aspect of baseball. I was one of the fans who cheered Jim Thome in Minnesota. And rightfully so.

But the brain trust in charge of the Twins didn't allow Thome any real time in the field on defense. Why? Because he was horribly old and decrepit.

What's my point in all of this? Torii Hunter can no longer play the DEFENSIVE part of the game effectively. Because of that he will cause the Twins to lose more games this year than he will help us to win. The whole reason for fielding a team is not to put more fans in the seats at any cost. The purpose is to put a winning team on the field which will then, as a result, draw fans.

Smoke and mirrors only last so long. A new stadium, signing players past their prime who are local legends, while giving other local boys for more money than they're worth MIGHT give the Twins more fans in the short run, but in the LONG RUN the franchise will die out. Every year, management should either be building toward a future winner, or at least start the rebuilding process, doing what's best in the long run.

Greater baseball minds are starting to see the value of metrics. It helps GMs and managers ***and fans*** see WHY certain players are no longer worth pursuing. A couple of days ago I showed you one of the reasons why the Twins pitchers were so bad. Defensive metrics showed that the Twins corner outfielders were really poor. Today I'm going to go into a bit more detail.

Oswadlo Arcia was the third WORST right fielder in baseball last year. He literally cost us games just by playing in right field. Metrics show us that. It's not just his fielding percentage as metrics are much more specific than that. It's where he stands, how fast he is, how he reacts to (and judges) batted balls, and other major aspects of being an outfielder, that you can't always see. Metrics do this and they do them quite well. And Twins management has ALL OF THESE METRICS AVAILABLE TO THEM. There are math geeks that make a wonderful living on compiling these statistics.

So what bothers me about the choice of the Twins putting an ancient Torii Hunter (replacing Arcia) in right field this year? Torii was THE WORST RIGHT FIELDER IN ALL OF BASEBALL LAST YEAR according to those metrics.

That means the Twins have actually signed, at a cost of over 10 million dollars, one of two men who were WORSE at fielding their position than Arcia.

Yesterday Pioneer Press sportswriter Mike Berardino asked the Twins about that. Torii Hunter, who has always thought little of these metrics called Berandino "a prick" for asking.

Yes, Torii Hunter always keeping it classy.

Winning teams like Oakland, San Francisco, and KC are relying on these metrics more and more because they KNOW it's the only financially feasible way for small and mid-market teams to compete.  It's not magic. It's math. And teams that use it are becoming winners.

There's a reason that the Twins have been going downhill steadily for the last several seasons and it's not just our pitching. We have a team rooted in the past. We have players rooted in the past. We have management rooted in the past. AND if you're one of those fans who still says "Well, I like Molitor as manager, " or "I like that the Twins signed Torii Hunter again," you are a FAN that's rooted in the past. We won't win as long as that mindset exists in the fan base and team.

Torii Hunter's bat speed will be the next thing to go so I'm predicting far more strikeouts this season. Yes, he will have some game winning RBI, he'll make an occasional sparkling catch or  great throw, but he'll not excel at his job.

And we will lose more games with him than without him.

It's math.

Did I mention that Hunter insisted on a full "no-trade" clause and that the Twins stupidly gave it him? We won't even be able to trade him in the middle of the season once we realize our error.

Make no mistake about it, Hunter is in this for himself, knowing the Twins were the only club in baseball stupid enough to agree to that type of contact with an aging player.

Wolves Lose at Home to Worst Team in Basketball

The Sixers were 0-17 heading into last night's game with the Wolves. By winning they stopped themselves from having the worst start in NBA history.

Let me rephrase that: The only thing that stopped them from being the worst team of ALL-TIME was beating Minnesota.

How does that make me feel?

Minnesotan.

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Twins Decide Old Man is Best Option

What the Twins needed in the outfield is speed. What they chose is a veteran bat that will replace Oswaldo in right, making Arcia, an already poor outfielder, switch to a new, even more difficult outfield position.

The Twins say they need Torii Hunter's veteran presence and leadership.

Torri can still hit. His arm is still strong. But he's nearly 40 years old. Michael Cuddyer will be making the same money this year for the Mets and he's several years younger. No offense, but I'd take Cyddyer in a heartbeat over Torii.

Sigh.

Sometimes I feel like I'm an inhabitant of the Island of Misfit toys. I'll just shed a few more tears and wait for the year AFTER next season. Torri should be retired by then, and the Twins can finally start building for the future instead of living in the past.

Nostalgia is fine, for what it's worth, but it has no place in a team looking to build for the future.

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Butch Davis

The Twins have a new first base coach. Butch Davis had one good, short season in the majors 30 years ago. He fizzled the next, and played really well at Triple A for 20 years before retiring. For those of you who missed it, Gene Glynn, an infielder for Montreal in his playing days, was named our third base coach. He'll handle our infielders while Davis will coaches the outfielders.

Our coaching staff is now complete.

With TV shows in reruns, the Wolves having a truly awful season again, and the Vikings only playing once a week, Butch Davis is pretty much it for today.

I would mention the Dolphins/Jets game last night but those offenses were just horrible to watch.

So I didn't.

Monday, December 1, 2014

Is Pitching REALLY the Problem?

Like a lot of other Twins fans I've been quick to blame the Twins win-loss record on lousy starting pitching, but the more someone digs into the problem you start to see a bigger problem with the Twins as a whole that you may not have seen before. What if the problem ISN'T so much pitching as less than average defensive players?

At first glance, you see that the Twins fielding percentage wasn't that bad this year, but fielding percentage doesn't tell the whole story of how good or bad a defense is, especially when you're talking defensive outfielders. Their speed and arm strength comes as into play as much  their gaffes, or lack there of, while playing in big open spaces.

How many times, in previous seasons did we see guys like Gomez, Span, and Revere making incredible catches in center field taking away sure hits and ending opposing teams' rallies in a heartbeat? How many times have you seen a great throw nail a speedy runner trying to score from second base? How many times have we seen that in that the last couple of seasons?

In other words how many times have we seen a Twins outfielder on SportsCenter highlights with web gems, plays of the week, or the nightly highlight reel?

The correct answer? Far less than previous seasons. But don't take my word for it, someone else has already done the math.

Let's start at the beginning:

It really shouldn't be that difficult to improve the Twins outfield defense. They spent much of 2014 with Josh Willingham or Jason Kubel in left field, Oswaldo Arcia or Chris Colabello in right and a shortstop (Danny Santana) in center.

By Baseball Info System's DRS metric -- DRS meaning "defensive runs saved" -- the Twins were next to last in all of baseball. Only Cleveland's fielders gave more runs to the opposition.

The Twins team DRS was -67, meaning they were 67 runs worse than MLB average. Most of that is traced to the corner outfielders. Left field was -25, right field was -23. (The pitchers and catchers were also notable problems; the pitchers were -13, the catchers -10. Those four positions account for -71 runs, so the other five combined scored a bit better than average.)

The Twins gave up 777 runs last season, Give them league average defense, at least by DRS, and that drops to 710 -- still worse than average, but fewer than they scored themselves.

So was the Twins pitching staff part of the problem? Absolutely. But the poor outfielders made a bad situation far worse. Those 67 "extra" runs the defense gave up translate to as many as six  losses for the Twins. Which means they would have had six more wins with same exact pitching staff last season had they had just "average" outfielders. That's a 12 game swing in the standings.

To put it another way, if everything else were equal, both KC and San Francisco would not have made the playoffs last year with our outfielders. Their pitching would not have been good enough to make up for their lack of defensive prowess.

Baseball IS a team sport. Sometimes bad pitching just points to a bigger problem. For the Twins that bigger problem is guys who can't play their position well. Better pitching will merely disguise that problem. But its still going to be there until we get better fielders.




Great Football Day

The NFL aligned its schedule perfectly yesterday so that I got to see my favorite three teams play. Better yet? They all won!

The Viking special teams were on fire yesterday. TWO blocked punts. BOTH returned for touchdowns, and some good punt returns kept the Vikings in good field position all day long while never really moving the ball. Bridgewater did his job (no turnovers) and the Vikes surprisingly rolled to an easy win. Not exactly textbook but it still produced a very satisfying win for the Purple. The half-filled stands at the end told another story as well, Minnesotans no longer like cold weather games.

In the battle of future hall-of famers meeting for the first time, Aaron Rodgers was more impressive against a great New England defense than Tom Brady was against an average Packer defense. In fact, the Packers defense looked as good as they've looked all season. Bottom line? My Pack won because they were the better team with the better quarterback.

And to finish it all off, my Broncos beat KC AT KC last night.

A super satisfying day of great football, Sundays don't get any better than that. Especially when the person watching the games with you loves the games almost as much as you do.