The Cumulative Effect

Sabermetrics is a term that modern day geeks use a lot when they are talking about newer sports statistics. I've talked about the term rather regularly here and mentioned some of those stats.

I'm making up one of my own today. I call it The Cumulative Effect. This isn't a stat that refers to on-field play. It's referencing the fans of losing teams. Every year, less of them are interested in their favorite sports team. The effect is not the fault of the fans, it represents a failure of management to put a competitive team on the field. This is multiplied by the number of years that a team has a dismal record.

Obviously, it's not an exact statistic, but a baseball team that fails to break .500 for a period of several years will see their fan support dropping off each year, especially if they WERE good for several years before "the slump." The farther below .500 they go, the quicker the effect will come into play.

The Twins are a good example of that. Last year attendance was down. The new stadium was no longer the draw it initially was. Fans simply stopped making plans to watch what was once their favorite team.

This year the effect is even more noticeable. Pre-season ticket sales are down nearly 10% over last year, and the effect will gain momentum if the Twins do not get off to a great start. That 10% figure will look good compared to the end of this coming season if the Twins suffer another horrid season as expected. By NEXT season the effect will be fully in play. Attendance will be as dismal as the Twins themselves.

In Minnesota, the effect will be even more noticeable. You see, the effect is multiplied by multiple losing sports teams. If your big three sports teams are all losing, then your interest as a fan will wane even more. The Vikings, Wolves, and Twins all influence the fan base's attitude toward sports. If the Vikes and Twins have several consecutive bad seasons, the fans will start to care exponentially less. Again, it's not their fault, it's the failure of management to produce results.

But the result will be devastating on future generations of fans. If mom and dad aren't interested in the Twins, odds are their kids won't be either. And those kids will learn to spend their entertainment dollars elsewhere. There are markets out there right now that have already lost their fan base. Oakland comes to mind, but there are others. Even winning on a regular basis doesn't reverse the trend. At least not quickly. A history of losing causes long term problems to a franchise's health.

The Twins and Vikings are both experiencing early signs of the Cumulative Effect.

As are their fans.

I've never liked the term "bandwagon fan" because it purports the idea that fans should inherently support their team, no matter what. I don't believe in bandwagon fans. I believe in horrible management and holding them responsible for my lack of interest.

You see, ultimately, I'm a modern-day American. And nothing is my fault.