Previewing the Season

This is usually the time of year when The Casual Observer and most of his readers fill out a form predicting how well the Twins and some of their players will do this season. I can't see doing it this year because there are just too many new pitchers and players to even try make accurate predictions. Couple that with former MVPs like Mauer and Morneau returning and not knowing what we'll see out of them because of the last two years of inconsistent play, and we have the makings of a pretty bad list of prognostications.

That being said, here's a few things I'd like to ask others about with a few predictions.

1) Will the Twins have even ONE pitcher with 10 wins this season?

That usually would seem like a no-brainer, I mean EVERY team has a pitcher that could get at least 10 wins, right? I would normally say yes, but I could also see the Twins being stubborn about keeping Worley, Pelfry, and Carreira in the starting rotation even if all are off to slow starts. IF they all have fair to middling first halves of the season before we start to consider other arms replacing them, they won't have 10 wins. The pitcher replacing them won't have enough time left to get 10 wins either. Now days a very good pitcher going the whole season may have a hard time getting 20 wins. Average pitchers going HALF a season aren't going to pick up 10 wins for the same reason.

I see the Twins having at least 8 or 9 different guys in the starting rotation this season. 11 or more is still a possibility. Most will not be doing this the full season. We will switch out at leat 3 of the starters by mid to late May if we are off to a horrible start. Diamond, if he's healthy could be in by by mid-April. Gibson if he looks strong, my mid-June.

So the answer to that question? Yes. We will have ONE, Scott Diamond, if he comes back healthy. I see the Twins with 7 or 8 other starters with 5-8 wins each. No one will pitch often enough or well enough to earn more.

2) If you could chose one or the other would you say the Twins will get no more than 65 wins this season OR that they'll easily be a .500 ball club?

I'm electing to say less than 65 wins so I would go with the first choice. At this point, I say our starting rotation is worse than last year's early season starting rotation. I also see us missing Span and Revere. We're all hoping that Hicks will make us forget both, but until he actually gets a few months of everyday play under his belt, he still is as big a question mark as the starting rotation.

3) How many Twins will have at least 18 homeruns this year? I'm actually pretty optimistic about this one. Mauer is knocking the cover off the ball this spring, so I'm thinking he has a legitimate chance at that number again. Better? Morneau looks like he has his power stroke back as well. We can add Willingham, Doumit, and a healthy Plouffe to the list. too. And Hicks and Parmalee BOTH have demonstrated power with their bats.

I'm going as optimistic on this one. All healthy, all performing well, the Twins will have SEVEN guys with at least 18 homers this season. TWO will top 30. Injuries could curtail all of this in a hurry, but for now I think we all see the potential. This is the most well distributed power the Twins have ever had.

4) Will any of us be following the Twins regularly at all by mid-May? I'm pretty sure most of us won't mind skipping a game or two by then. YES, we'll have the game on in the background most nights, but none of will care after the fourth or fifth inning enough to keep watching.

5) Will Justin Morneau be traded by the mid-season trade deadline? Yes. Realistically the only way he won't be is if we are actually still in the race. I don't think any of us see that happening. I would now like to change two of my earlier predictions. We'll have SIX guys with at least 18 homers (unless Morneau is super hot by the All-Star break) and we'll have ONE guy with at least 30 homeruns for the season.)

6) Will the Twins trade Willingham or Mauer before the season is over to make room for more payroll possibilities for NEXT season. YES. And don't be surprised if it's both. We can't afford to sign Willingham to a new deal and Mauer's contract needs to be paid by a team that can actually afford it. The Yankees are getting old and 1/3 of their normal starting lineup isn't going to be playing when the season starts. They are looking to rebuild THEIR way and the Twins have two guys who could fill some slots right away.