Wild Win Again

They've won four of their last five, and for the first time all season, they ay are actually scoring goals. Last night they had FOUR in the first period and ended the game with a 6-4 win.

I watched the highlights and I'm more convinced than ever that scoring in hockey is a matter of luck. Two attempted goals in the first period clanged off the goal post only to have a Wild player in perfect position as the puck bounced to him perfectly, so that he could get the followup goal.

This happens all of the time in basketball. It's called a followup on a rebound, but in hockey, it's still pretty rare, that's one of the reasons that scoring in a typical game is like soccer 2-1. So much has to happen RIGHT (mathematically and skill-wise) for those rebound goals to score. Players are nearly ALWAYS in position to score on those rebound shots, but the puck has to go to them just the right way for it to happen.

In either case, Minnesota IS a better team than the Avalanche (by record), so the better team did win.
Just like soccer, though, it's hard to determine which team is truly better when all the top teams play so many close games. The difference between each win or loss is often just a single goal scored in OT or in a final shootout. Statistically, those types of wins are called "rounding errors." And since they happen so regularly, there is no real way of determining which team is really better.

The less scientific way of saying this? One team is consistently "luckier." And NEXT season another team may get the benefit of those rounding errors, be luckier, and win. I'm not saying the players themselves aren't talented. I'm saying that their abilities are all so similar, that all the teams are basically equal. And since one team HAS to win, eventually one team does. It's brutal rooting for teams in these types of situations, but soccer fans world-wide have been enduring these types of statistical anomalies in their sport for decades.

Behavioral studies suggest that when you root for and often bet on teams in these types of situations that eventually the fan who does so becomes more agitated and less stable as times goes by. They become more belligerent and more aggressive with each passing season. I think that explains the occurrence of soccer riots and their increasing frequency over the last 15 years.

Two hockey teams or soccer clubs who are basically even in skill level  have the same chance of winning as say "flipping a coin." The problem is that the person watching these games doesn't KNOW that their chances of winning are basically 50/50 and they grow agitated when the coin toss doesn't go their way. The perceived skill of the players involves masks the fact that both teams are as likely to lose as win. Anger is the result. That could also explain why hockey fans like the player brawls so much. The pent up anger has to be released somehow.

The best soccer teams in the world and the best hockey teams in the world have achieved equilibrium. Or as sports commentators like to say, "parity."

Why is this phenomena so predominant in hockey and soccer? Primarily because the variant player in each (the goalie) is a defensive player. Baseball and football are different. The pitcher in baseball is the attacker. He's actively involved in silencing the players who are batting, (even though they are looked at by most as the "offense.") In football the primary variant, a protected quarterback is also a primary player. The skill of the offensive line and an accurate throwing QB who can escape pressure varies widely. No parity has been reached there.

The only other popular sport where parity could evolve is basketball, and I think we are seeing that, this season, in college ball. The reason? There is no primary variant player in basketball. All of the teams recruit similar players with similar skill levels. It appears that all the top teams have one or two really good players which is enough to off-set the top couple of players from every other school.

NBA ball has avoided this, for now, because top teams still have the very best players. Not all teams are equal in the NBA. The top teams pay for the best players and have the ability to acquire them.

The argument COULD be made that parity has been reached in the top 6-8 teams in ALL sports including the NBA, but that's a discussion for another time.